Explainer: Why Global Food Security is Worsening in 2025

Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India - Saturday, March 8, 2025, 11:52 AM IST

New data reveals a concerning trend: global food security is deteriorating, especially in low-income countries. This explainer breaks down the latest findings and explores the key factors driving this crisis.

What's the Current Food Security Situation?

Recent reports from February 2025 paint a grim picture:

Millions are food insecure: East Africa is estimated to have 61.6 million people facing food insecurity. Western and Central Africa are projected to have nearly 50 million more.
Africa is particularly affected: Low-income countries, especially in Africa, are experiencing the most severe impacts.
High food price inflation: A large percentage of low-income countries are seeing food price inflation exceeding 5%, making food unaffordable for many.

Key Takeaway: Food insecurity is not just a concern, but a growing crisis affecting millions, particularly in Africa and low-income nations.

What are the Main Drivers of Food Insecurity?

The report highlights two primary culprits:

Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts disrupt agricultural production, displace populations, and destabilize economies, making it harder for people to access food.
Climate Change: Increasingly frequent and severe climate events like droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures damage crops, reduce yields, and impact livelihoods dependent on agriculture.

Expert Insight: The World Bank emphasizes that these factors are not isolated events but interconnected challenges that require comprehensive solutions.

How is Food Price Inflation Impacting the Crisis?

Domestic food price inflation is a major factor worsening food insecurity:

High inflation in low-income countries: Over 73% of low-income countries are experiencing food price inflation above 5%.
Inflation rising in lower-middle-income countries: Over 52% of lower-middle-income countries also face high food price inflation.
Food inflation outpacing overall inflation: In over half of the countries with data, food prices are rising faster than general inflation, making basic necessities increasingly unaffordable.

Data Point: The latest data shows a concerning increase in food price inflation in low-income and lower-middle-income countries since January 2025.

What's Happening with Global Food Prices?

Global agricultural markets are showing mixed signals:

Agricultural and Export Price Indices Up: These indices have risen recently, indicating potential upward pressure on food prices in general.
Cereal Price Index Stagnant: The overall cereal price index is stable, but prices of specific cereals vary.
Maize and Wheat Prices Increased: Prices for these staple grains have risen, which is concerning for countries that rely on imports.
Rice Prices Decreased: Rice prices have decreased, offering some relief, but this may not offset the increases in other staples.
Maize Prices at 15-Month Peak: International maize export prices have reached a high point due to supply concerns.

Is Funding for Food Security Sufficient?

A critical issue is the level of funding allocated to the food sector:

Food sector underfunded: Only 3% of total development funding goes to the food sector.
Humanitarian assistance prioritized: A much larger share (33%) is allocated to humanitarian assistance.
Funding gap: There is a significant gap between funding for immediate relief and long-term food security solutions.

Call for Investment: Experts argue that long-term food security requires increased investment in sustainable agriculture and resilient food systems, not just short-term aid.

How Does Economic Stagnation Play a Role?

The global economic outlook is not helping the food security situation:

Slow global growth: The World Bank projects global growth to remain slow at 2.7% through 2026.
Limited poverty reduction: This slow growth is insufficient to significantly reduce poverty or improve food security in low-income countries.
Economic challenges worsen food insecurity: High inflation, debt, and trade disruptions are making the food crisis worse for vulnerable populations.

Economic Impact: Persistent economic challenges are undermining efforts to improve food security and poverty reduction.

How are Trade Restrictions Exacerbating the Problem?

Trade policies intended to protect domestic markets are having unintended consequences:

Surge in trade restrictions: Following the Ukraine crisis, many countries have implemented food and fertilizer trade restrictions.
Export bans and limits: 17 countries have export bans on food, and 8 have export-limiting measures.
Worsening global crisis: These restrictions disrupt global trade, increase price volatility, and reduce food availability worldwide.

Trade Policy Impact: While meant to ensure domestic food supply, trade restrictions are contributing to the global food crisis.

What is the World Bank Doing to Address Food Insecurity?

The World Bank is engaged in a wide range of projects to combat food insecurity:

Comprehensive portfolio: Projects span 90 countries, addressing both immediate needs and long-term resilience.
Short-term and long-term interventions: Includes social protection programs and investments in sustainable agriculture and climate-smart practices.
Benefitting millions: World Bank projects are expected to benefit 296 million people.

Examples of World Bank Projects: (See original post for detailed examples in Honduras, Eastern and Southern Africa , Malawi, Madagascar, Burundi, Sahel Region, Central African Republic, Guinea Bissau, Africa (CGIAR), West Africa, Yemen, Tajikistan, Jordan, Bolivia, Chad, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Egypt, and Tunisia).

Project Focus: These projects aim to improve agricultural productivity, enhance climate resilience, strengthen food systems, and provide emergency support to vulnerable populations.

What Global Initiatives are in Place?

International cooperation is crucial to address this crisis:

Global Alliance for Food Security: Co-convened by the World Bank and G7 to coordinate global response.
Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard: Developed by the Alliance to provide timely information for decision-makers.
Joint Statements by International Organizations: The heads of FAO, IMF, World Bank Group, WFP, and WTO are calling for urgent action.

Key Recommendations from International Organizations:

Rescue hunger hotspots: Provide immediate aid to areas in crisis.
Facilitate trade and improve markets: Reduce trade barriers and improve market function.
Reform harmful subsidies: Repurpose subsidies to support sustainable food systems.

Conclusion: Urgent Action Needed

The latest data on global food security is deeply concerning. Conflicts, climate change, and economic challenges are converging to create a worsening crisis, particularly in low-income countries. While international organizations and initiatives like the World Bank's projects are crucial, a sustained and coordinated global effort is needed. This includes:

Increased funding for the food sector: Shifting development priorities to invest more in long-term food security.
Addressing conflict and climate change: Tackling the root causes of food insecurity.
Promoting free and fair trade: Avoiding trade restrictions that worsen the global crisis.
Supporting vulnerable populations: Providing both immediate relief and long-term resilience-building programs.

Failing to act decisively will have devastating consequences for millions and undermine global stability.

(Source: World Bank )